A rapid population growth, a very young age profile, a very high fertility rate and a strong and uncontrolled urbanization, these are some of the Sahel specificities identified by the much respected Atlantic Council (United States). For this well-documented work, it has benefited from the professionalism of two consultants, including Stephen Smith, recognized for his expertise and writings on the region. Added and to be associated to these realities is the ever-increasing terrorist groups violence. In the Sahel they have find the most favorable geographical and political spaces.

Demographics.

Will the realities identified by the Atlantic Council overwhelm the capacities of Sahelian states to produce jobs and public goods in the quantities needed? Will they allow, at the same time, a victorious fight, armed or otherwise, against terrorism? The relevance of the questions is all the more obvious as other major difficulties weaken the Sahel socially and therefore politically.

Not to mention threats related to environmental issues, that deserve more attention and resources, among these major hardships, emerge the many but fruitful and dangerous trafficking in drugs, cigarettes and migrants. For their lucrative illegal operations, traffickers appeal essentially to their community solidarity. This is how they “retribalize”, in other words deconstruct the national public administration inherited from colonial time. Very often, Customs, Police and other Security Forces and undoubtedly also the politicians, have more loyalty to these smugglers than to the modern state in construction. Facing so many conflicting priorities, governments, often weakened, leave demography as it is, in a galloping state.

In the short and medium terms, the demographic situation is slowing down and probably thwarting economic growth. More specifically, it limits social progress, hinders urbanization through the rapid and uncontrolled expansion of slums, particularly around the capital cities. Ultimately, it creates a context that makes national budgets even more destitute, especially those intended for investment in education and social works.

Thus, that demography aggravates the failure of countries already economically lagging behind in relation to the rest of the world. In that structurally unstable context, the question of collective security will continue to arise as long as population growth remains so high.

Bringing an early response to the threats hanging over the Sahel invites to contribute to the making of a social and family environment that is unfavorable to the entrenchment and expansion of extremism. To this end, effective and programmed support for the advancement of girls and women, ie more than 52 percent of the population, is imperative. Thus, to deal with present and future terrorist threats and manage this population growth, priority should be given to a program that

improves women status, namely the education of girls and women. A solid asset against extremism.

However, in the face of specifically anti-feminist terrorism, how can such a program be implemented on the ground? The decline of the birth rate in the Sahel is not yet occurring, cyclical food insecurity is expected to last, armed conflicts as well and their consequences migration as well as the flows of refugees and other internally displaced persons, armed conflicts victims.

Terrorism entrenchment.

The continued entrenchment of terrorism, the expansion of violence across the Sahel and its creeping extension towards coastal states, make it difficult and above all frustrating, to implement policies to prevent or combat this scourge. Moreover, with the war in Ukraine, the overlapping, in reality the adjustment of the major developed countries military-diplomatic priorities can only be unfavorable to the Sahel. It is now much lower on the international agenda priorities.

But if in fact the Sahel was already experiencing the Somalia situation where the perpetuation of terrorism, hides a very different reality that some would say is not very Islamic? There too, beyond religious assertions, the reality is a struggle between clans, tribes and regions for the control of the national economy. With its exports (cattle, fish) and its imports (sugar, Islamic fabrics, medicines, industrial products) intended for … neighbors states markets, Somalia is not a unique case. A situation that has exhausted all its partners including those of the region but which still lasts.

The Sahel instability risks becoming even more hazardous since the outbreak of the Ukraine war. Already not effectively a priority on the international agenda, it now is  lesser with the challenges linked to that first war in Europe since 1939.

This new context is perceived as a God blessing and explained as such by terrorist groups. Their many allies in the underground economy are its propagandists.

Weakened, the social balances in the Sahel, the basis of the peaceful cohabitation between the different social, ethnic and other groups are shaken and even broken.

In fact, these developments will also discourage or render ineffective international cooperation. They cannot fail to worry or even drive away the major private investors which in particular provide jobs to young people.

Moreover, it is admitted, that the Sahel states capacities and willingness to respond in a sustainable and harmonious manner to these enormous challenges are still lacking. This is partly confirmed by the series of military coups since 2020, the disputes over the presence of the Wagner’s fighters linked to Russia and the ongoing withdrawal of French forces from Mali.

In fine, a strong diplomatic action led by the G 5 Sahel host country, Mauritania, if necessary in cooperation with ECOWAS, has become useful to help clarify the Sahel horizon. Giving hope to populations, sending a new message to the rebellions and exchanging views with external partners cannot wait any longer.

This unequivocal commitment will also be a proof, given by Nouakchott, which claims the absence of armed terrorists on its national territory that no connivance can occur against the support to the fight of the G 5 Sahel allies and others.

Galloping demography, the more attractive to the great powers and the media Ukraine war, the subsequent threats to the fragile Sahel economies, in this turmoil, the Sahel cannot give up or accept the murderous routine. That is the people message.

PS Following this weekend massacre, over 100 deaths in northern Burkina, people in this totally landlocked Liptako Gourma three borders area (Burkina Faso, Mali Niger) say they cannot understand that, after a 10 years’ war, rebels still have new cars and motorcycles and, surprisingly enough, gasoline. Corruptions, complicities?

Ahmedou Ould Abdallah

President centre4s.org