Paul AMARA, Consultant, Centre4s

The African-Atlantic Gas Pipeline (Nigeria – Morocco) or GAA was initiated by Morocco in December 2016 during King Mohamed VI visit to Nigeria. Valued at $25 billion, this mega-project will connect Morocco to Nigeria via the Atlantic coast, crossing 13 countries before reaching Europe. Approximately 5,600 – 6,200 km long, it should also ensure energy security of both these coastal countries and the Alliance of Sahel States (ESA). One of the world best-known pipelines is the North Stream 2, connecting Russia to Germany over 1,234 km and is 48 inches wide. Worldwide, there are 3,859,000 km of pipelines, transporting 5 trillion tons of gas.

The GAA will have a capacity of 30 billion cubic meters of gas per year. The first shipments should begin in 2029. A model of South-South cooperation, it will offer the European Union an alternative or a complement to Russian gas. It is part of the Atlantic Initiative, another Moroccan project designed to promote access to the Atlantic Ocean for Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, and Chad.

The project has a predecessor, or immediate regional competitor: the Nigeria-Algeria Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline (NIGAL). In some documents, it is also referred to as the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline (TSGP), and is expected to connect Nigeria to Algeria, starting in 2027, carrying natural gas to Europe. The idea dates back to the 1980s. However, for various reasons, the agreement on its implementation was only signed on July 3, 2009, by the governments of Nigeria, Algeria, and Niger, thus 30 years later. Hoping to diversify its gas supply sources, the European Union was favorable. Rich in natural resources, both countries, claimed at the time to have the necessary funds to finance it. At the 27th Extraordinary African Union summit, held on July 17 and 18, 2016, in Kigali, Nigeria announced that the pipeline would be 90% owned by Sonatrach (Algeria National Company for Research, Production, Transport, Transformation, and Marketing of Hydrocarbons) and the NNPC (Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation) and 10% by the National Oil Company of Niger. To say the least its launching is presently off track.

A thirty-year delay.

Problem: in Nigeria itself, the Niger Delta is infested with terrorists and other groups that regularly disrupt energy facilities, siphoning off oil. In Niger, the north is under constant threat from various rebellions. Algeria southern desert is also within firing range of terrorist groups. The last news of this project goes back to July 28, 2022, during Algeria, Niger and Nigeria third meeting in Algiers. On that occasion, a memorandum of understanding was signed. The geopolitical and energy context at the time, marked by rising hydrocarbon prices, triggered by the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war on February 24, 2022, favored that action. At that time, Algeria supplied 11% of European natural gas, compared to Russia 47%. The coup d’état in Niger on July 26 and 27, 2023, placed Niamey on Ecowas sanctions list, thus weakening the project.

Noting these various delays, as early as 2016, King of Morocco offered the African Atlantic Gas Pipeline project. A first agreement was thus signed by the end of 2016. The Nigerian federal government agreed to the signing of a protocol between the NNPC and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). The pipeline would also be an extension of a gas pipeline already carrying gas from southern Nigeria to Benin, Ghana, and Togo since 2010.

Nigeria and Algeria have the largest natural gas reserves in Africa. By 2024, the former had 210 trillion cubic feet, ahead of Algeria (159) and Morocco (39 billion). In the oil sector, Nigeria ranks second in Africa, with 36.9 billion barrels—35% of the continent’s crude oil reserves—and nearly 80% of those in sub-Saharan Africa. Algeria ranks third with 12.2 billion barrels.

Some of the gas pipeline challenges.

The challenges to the gas pipeline are political, economic, and geostrategic. Several African countries have an electrification rate of less than 40%. Nigeria is one of them, suffering from power outages and forcing those populations, who can, to equip themselves with generators, which cause pollution and other nuisances, not to mention fuel price. The gas pipeline would allow these countries to produce more electricity using thermal power plants running on natural gas. With continuous energy, their economies would gain in productivity and profitability. The agricultural sector is also expected to prosper as gas can be used to manufacture essential fertilizers. With the Russia-Ukraine war, their prices have skyrocketed.

Morocco and Nigeria have presented the pipeline as a factor in West Africa economic integration. It would join the network of smaller gas pipelines already supplying Europe via the Mediterranean Sea. China, which has invested in the Nigerian oil industry, wants to combine this pipeline with its Belt and Road Initiative. Launched in 2013, that initiative is intended to be an international platform to strengthen economic, diplomatic, political, and cultural ties between countries. Russia is also interested in the African-Atlantic Gas Pipeline, seeing it as a way to circumvent sanctions imposed by Western countries by redirecting certain investments towards Africa.

Financing Challenges.

However, the project faces a funding challenge. With fewer financial resources than Algeria, Morocco is nevertheless trying to become a leader in this field. That ambition has led the Kingdom to support foreign investment in this sector with the aim of going beyond the national framework to the regional level. Simultaneously, it is strengthening its interstate relationships, aiming at meeting consumer needs. These efforts have been praised by a platform specialized in the energy sector, « TAQA » (Arabic for Energy), a United Arab Emirates holding company operating in oil, gas, pipelines, power, and desalination. This platform has focused its attention on the Gas Pipeline, ranking it among the seven most important energy projects in Africa. These include oil and gas pipelines, power connections, and mining operations. Will this support from TAQA extend to a stake in the Gas Pipeline? That would be a diplomatic and financial success. Valued at $25 billion, the GAA is expected to result in a budget agreement this year. Reaching that final investment decision stage is essential to the start of actual construction work. The pipeline’s capital should attract a range of investors: sovereign wealth funds, development and commercial banks and oil giants.

In March 2024, Ms. Amina Benkhadra, Director General of the Moroccan National Office of Hydrocarbons and Mines (ONHYM), announced the creation of a company to oversee the project financing, construction and operations. This enhances significantly the megaproject. Ms. Amina Benkhadra, the Moroccan leader of the initiative, confirmed that the feasibility and detailed engineering studies, which will be carried out in two phases, have been completed. In addition, environmental impact studies, essential to the financial package and compliance with donor requirements, will begin in 2024. The pipeline will primarily follow an offshore route to Dakhla, Western Sahara, before running along the Atlantic coast onshore to connect to the Maghreb – Europe Gas Pipeline (GME), which has been closed for decades. It will cross several West African countries: Benin, Togo, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Gambia, Senegal, and Mauritania. The ESA states will benefit from this infrastructure through extensions. The project also represents a continuation of the Lagos-Takarosli (Ghana) pipeline via Benin and Togo before heading to Abidjan and Tangiers along the Atlantic coast.

From Tangiers, it goes through Gibraltar straits to Cadiz, Spain, where it will join the old Algeria-Morocco-Spain pipeline. A feasibility study dating back to 2017 and 2019 was conducted by the companies in charge of the current project: the Nigeria National Oil Company and the Office Chérifien des Phosphates.

According to Ms. Benkhadra, the data collected demonstrates the project’s competitiveness, compared to liquefied natural gas, in terms of cost, capacity, and transportation. This first section will run from Senegal – Mauritania to Morocco and then Europe. At the same time, the second phase, linking Nigeria to Côte d’Ivoire, will advance. These first two phases will be commissioned in 2029. The third stage will consist of the central connection, linking the secondary segments. Concluding the construction of these first two phases, Morocco announced the launch of a call for tenders in November 2024, demonstrating its commitment to accelerating the construction of this infrastructure, which will transform the region’s energy market.

On November 12, 1984, Morocco left the Organization of African Unity protesting against its recognition of a Sahrawi state. During the 28th African Union summit held in Addis Ababa on January 30 and 31, 2017, King Mohammed VI noted « the extinguished flame of the Arab Maghreb Union (UMA), » of which Algeria, Libya, Morocco, Mauritania, and Tunisia are or were members. On February 12 of the same year, Morocco officially submitted its application for membership in ECOWAS. The Kingdom is seeking a vast area to stimulate and expand its economy. Until then, it had obtained an « agreement in principle » and « observer status. »

With the exception of Mauritania and the ESA three states, the other countries interested in the gas pipeline are members of ECOWAS. Will Morocco mollify the institution’s hand by strategically surrounding its members?

Off ocean coastlines, far away from Sahel terrorists affected areas, the Africa Atlantic Coastline gas pipeline should constitutes an exceptional development factor and as a such deserving diplomatic and financial support from all.